ABOUT NPCC Careers Contact Us Governance & Corporate Membership Resources Leadership Team PROGRAM AREAS Standards & Criteria Compliance RAPA SAIS COMMITTEES DER/VER Forum Gov/Reg Affairs Reliability Coordinating Regional Standards NEWS Search SIGN IN

Posted: 12/12/2023

NPCC’s Winter Reliability Assessment Indicates Adequate Electricity Supplies Under Forecasted Conditions

(The Assessment Covers New York, New England, and Eastern Canada)

New York, NY – 12/12/23 – Northeast Power Coordinating Council’s (NPCC’s) annual winter reliability assessment forecasts its region will have an adequate supply of electricity this winter to meet projected peak demand under a variety of forecasted weather conditions.

NPCC projects the regional forecast coincident peak demand of 112,217 MW (the simultaneous peak demand for the entire region) will occur the week of January 21, 2024. This demand is estimated to be 1,578 MW higher than last winter’s forecast. An installed winter capacity of 169,291 MW is projected to be in place to meet the forecasted electricity demand, which is 1,257 MW less than last winter.

After accounting for transmission constraints, NPCC’s assessment estimates the region’s spare operable capacity under forecasted conditions during the winter period will be substantial, with capacity over and above reserve requirements, ranging from approximately 16,400 to 33,200 MW.

“NPCC’s assessment indicates adequate capacity margins and transmission capability to meet the region’s peak demand and required operating reserves under forecasted conditions this winter,” said Charles Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer of NPCC. “The transmission system enhancements in place for this winter will result in greater transfer capability, improving the overall reliability of the region.”

Recent reports have underscored the impacts that extreme weather events may have on regional reliability. Because natural gas continues to be the predominant fuel source in New England to produce electricity, ISO New England continues to closely monitor factors affecting the deliverability of natural gas throughout the winter reliability assessment period. ISO New England has winter reliability programs in place to address regional energy security risks if prolonged extreme weather occurs.

New York, Ontario, and Québec forecast adequate resources to meet winter demand. The Maritimes show a limited likelihood of using operating procedures designed to mitigate resource shortages, primarily driven by their forecast load and corresponding reserve margins.

“The assessment found that operating procedures are sufficient to provide reliability if reduced resources, higher than expected demands, and extreme weather conditions materialize,” said Phil Fedora, NPCC’s Chief Engineer and Vice President of Reliability Services. “NPCC’s coordination of communications among system operators continues to play a key role in maintaining regional reliability.”

NPCC’s reliability assessment considered a wide range of scenarios through the application of probabilistic methods, including weather conditions derived from over 40 years of data, unexpected generating plant outages, transmission constraints between and within areas, delays in expected in-service dates of planned facilities, the potential for some natural gas generators to be temporarily unavailable during cold or extreme winter conditions, and shifts in consumer electricity demand.

NPCC’s Reliability Assessment for Winter 2023-2024 is available at: www.npcc.org/library/reports/seasonal-assessment

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Marjorie Bitar 617-824-0313

 


  DOWNLOAD ATTACHMENT 1
  Previous

Next  

  CATEGORIES


Compliance Bulletin Decisions & Notices ERO Enterprise Media Release NERC NPCC Regional Entities & Others Reliability Assessment Security Bulletin

  NEWS ARCHIVES


  Upcoming Events


  News Highlights


Violation Trends and Compliance Enforcement Updates

April 08, 2024

NPCC Distributed Energy Resources/Variable Energy Resources Forum (DER/VER) March 28th, 2024

March 08, 2024

Security Notice

This is a Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) information system. You have no reasonable expectation of privacy regarding communications or data transiting or stored on NPCC’s information system. At any time and for any lawful purpose, NPCC may monitor, intercept, record, and search any communications or data transiting or stored on this information system. At NPCC’s sole discretion, NPCC may disclose pertinent information to the U.S. Government and its authorized representatives to protect the security of critical infrastructure and key resources, ensure information security, or to comply with any applicable law, regulation, legal process, or enforceable governmental request. By continuing, you acknowledge that you understand and consent to the terms and conditions described in this notice. The actual or attempted unauthorized access, use, or modification of this system is strictly prohibited and may subject violators to criminal, civil, and/or administrative action.