NPCC Summer 2021 Reliability Assessment Overview

This comprehensive reliability assessment conducted by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) projects that the Region (consisting of the six New England states, the State of New York, Ontario, Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer.

A wide range of conditions were analyzed, including forecast demand uncertainty; unexpected generator plant outages; transmission constraints between Regions and within NPCC; implementation of operating procedures; estimated impact of demand response programs; and additional capacity unavailability coupled with reduced transfer capabilities.

Forecasts indicate sufficient transmission capability and adequate capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves. Established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability and keep electricity supplies and demand in balance.

The NPCC Region will continue to manage the international electricity system impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. NPCC and its stakeholders have remained vigilant in implementing plans to maintain the safety of the workforce to ensure a highly reliable and secure Northeastern North American Bulk Power System.

NPCC’s pandemic response plan will remain in-place throughout the duration of the summer. Regularly scheduled Emergency Preparedness Conference Calls with regional and neighboring Reliability Coordinators (including PJM and the MISO) are held to discuss the latest impacts and coordinate entity response efforts. Lessons learned through past grid security exercises and through the last year have informed the electricity industry in implementing the current pandemic response.

Transmission and Resource Adequacy Summary

NPCC

The assessment projects that the Region (consisting of the six New England states, the State of New York, Ontario, Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer.

Approximately 161,200 MW of installed capacity¹ is forecast for NPCC this summer, including projects expected to be in service over the course of this summer period. Considering retirements and other adjustments, NPCC’s installed capacity has decreased by approximately 1,600MW from last summer. The largest decrease in installed capacity occurs in New England and in New York.

The coincident NPCC 2021 summer peak demand forecast2 is 104,075 MW. This forecast is 81 MW lower than the NPCC 2020 summer peak coincident demand forecast of 104,156 MW. After accounting for transmission constraints, the spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) for NPCC during the summer is estimated to range from 9,800 MW to over 25,000 MW.

The sizeable estimate of NPCC spare operable capacity will help to counteract any adverse reliability impacts from unavailability/inoperability of key facilities, such as resulting from equipment and fuel supply interruptions, and deferred generation maintenance.

Nevertheless, ambient weather conditions remain the most important variable in forecasting peak demand during the summer months. Historically, the peak loads and temperatures between New England and New York have a high correlation due to the relative locations of their respective load centers. Depending upon the extent and duration of a summer weather system, there is some potential for the Ontario summer peak demand to be coincident with New England and New York.

New York

Throughout New York State, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast this summer. The New York Independent System Operator (New York ISO) forecasts installed capacity of 37,785 MW for the 2021 summer peak demand forecast of 32,327 MW, which is 31 MW higher than the corresponding 2020 summer peak demand forecast. Accounting for purchases, sales, required operating reserve, planned and unplanned outages results in a spare operable capacity of 1,463 MW during the week of the NPCC forecast coincident peak demand.

Indian Point Unit 3 retired on April 30, 2021. Resource additions include the Roaring Brook and Cassadaga Wind generators. Considering all changes and other capacity adjustments, the resultant net change for New York generation (from summer 2020 through this upcoming summer) is a decrease of 1,052 MW.

The New York ISO does not anticipate any transmission related reliability issues for this summer. Multiple outages are expected over the summer period to facilitate the construction of New York Power Authority public policy projects, but equipment is expected to be restored to service if needed over high load periods.

New England

The Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-New England) forecasts installed capacity of 30,133 MW for the peak week demand forecast of 24,810 MW. Accounting for purchases, sales, required operating reserve, planned and unplanned outages results in a spare operable capacity of 1,972 MW for the week of the NPCC forecast coincident peak demand.

The ISO-New England 2021 summer peak demand forecast is 24,810 MW assuming historically based expected summer peak weather conditions. The 2021 summer peak demand forecast is 315 MW lower than the corresponding 2020 summer peak demand forecast.

New England retirements include Bridgeport Harbor 3, CDECCA and Pawtucket Power; considering several smaller solar and continuous storage resources and other capacity adjustments, the resultant net change for New England generation (from summer 2020 through this upcoming summer) is a 436 MW decrease.

With natural gas as the predominant fuel source for power generation in New England, ISO-New England monitors the factors affecting the natural gas fuel deliverability for the area. For the 2021 summer period, ISO-New England expects limited amounts of natural gas pipeline maintenance and construction to occur for select areas and does not forecast major deliverability issues that would affect the installed capacity.

The existing New England transmission system is projected to be sufficient for the 2021 summer period. Numerous transmission upgrades continue to be commissioned to address New England’s reliability needs. These transmission improvements have reinforced the overall reliability of the electric power system and reduced congestion, enabling power to flow more easily around the entire region. The improvements support decreased energy costs and increased power system flexibility.

Ontario

The Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (Ontario IESO) is anticipating a spare operable capacity of 1,241 MW during the week of the NPCC forecast coincident peak demand.

The Ontario IESO 2021 summer peak demand forecast is 22,500 MW. The forecast is 306 MW higher that last summer’s forecast peak demand.

From the summer of 2020 through this summer, capacity additions total 160 MW, consisting of two wind resources. Considering other adjustments, the resultant net change for Ontario’s generation (from summer 2020 through this summer) is a 160 MW increase.

For this summer, Ontario’s transmission system is expected to be adequate with planned transmission system enhancements and scheduled transmissions outages.

Québec

The Province of Québec is winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements this summer. Québec is projecting weekly spare operable capacity margins in the range of approximately 4,539 MW to 7,926 MW for this summer.

The Québec 2021 summer peak demand forecast (excluding April, May, and September) is 21,436 MW during the week of the NPCC forecast coincident peak demand. The 2021 summer peak demand forecast is 199 MW lower than last summer’s peak demand forecast of 21,635 MW. No resource adequacy problems are forecast; the Québec Area expects to be able to provide assistance to other areas, if needed, up to the transfer capability available.

For the upcoming summer period, wind generation total capacity is lowered (adjusted) by 24 MW to take into account the delayed commissioning of 24 MW Belle Rivière wind generation and a decrease in biomass generation by 31 MW. Considering other adjustments, the resultant net change for Québec generation (from summer 2020 through this summer) is a 111 MW decrease.

Most transmission line, transformer and generating unit maintenance is done during the summer period. Maintenance outages are coordinated with neighboring Area Reliability Coordinators to provide for maximum capability to summer peaking areas.

Maritime Provinces

The Maritime Provinces are also winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements. The Maritimes weekly spare operable capacity ranges from approximately 711 MW to about 1,338 MWover this summer.

The Maritimes Area has a 2021 summer peak demand forecast (excluding April, May and September) of 3,479 MW for the week beginning June 6, 2021 with a projected spare operable capacity of 1,031 MW. When compared to the 2020 summer peak demand forecast, it is an increase of 109 MW.

Since the summer of 2020 and through this summer, the Maritimes added a small wind unit; considering retirements, the resultant net change for Maritimes generation is an 18 MW increase.

The Maritimes transmission system is projected to be adequate to supply the demand requirements for this summer. A 500 MW (475 MW received in Nova Scotia) High Voltage Direct Current undersea cable link (Maritime Link) between Newfoundland, Labrador and Nova Scotia was installed in late 2017; however, the 153 MW firm capacity contract from the Muskrat Falls hydro development in Labrador is not expected until late 2021. The firm capacity contract is expected to facilitate the retirement of a 153 MW coal-fired unit in Nova Scotia; thus, the overall resource adequacy will be unaffected by these changes. Currently, the Maritime Link is being used to facilitate economic energy flows between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Estimated Need for Operating Procedures

A probabilistic assessment was conducted modeling NPCC and its neighboring Areas, identifying reliability risks associated with the base case and low-likelihood reduced resource scenario for a wide range of assumptions, including forecast demand uncertainty, unexpected generator plant outages, transmission constraints between and within Regions, implementation of operating procedures, estimated impact of demand response programs, additional capacity unavailability coupled with reduced transfer capabilities. Established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability and keep electricity supplies and demand in balance.

Operational Readiness

The Resource and Transmission Reliability Adequacy Assessments are key elements in determining NPCC’s ability to meet the forecast demands of the summer period. To be prepared to deal with the constantly changing operating conditions on the power system, as well as contingencies, NPCC routinely conducts daily and week-ahead planning calls between system operators and neighboring regions to coordinate short-term system operations.

NPCC continues to refine and expand its situational awareness capability to further enable NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions. In addition, NPCC supports Electric-Gas Operations reliability coordination efforts to promote communications, awareness, and information sharing.

Geomagnetic Storms

Geomagnetic activity over the summer and fall months of 2021 is forecasted to be low, with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions heavily dominating the period (K-indices3 of zero to 3). Coronal hole activity, which has been the dominant form of enhanced solar wind flows over the last year, has also stabilized over the polar regions of the Sun as the solar minimum approaches. This will further aid in maintaining a relatively stable space environment near the Earth for the upcoming period.

Solar activity is now at the minimum with the sunspot minimum for this solar cycle expected to be identified numerically within the next six months. As a result, the risk of enhanced geomagnetic activity resulting from solar coronal mass ejections is also expected to remain low. The next solar cycle is predicted to be around the same size as the last solar cycle and should reach a peak near 2025.

NPCC Region

NPCC is one of six Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada and portions of Mexico that, in concert with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, seek to assure a highly reliable, resilient, and secure North American bulk power system through the effective and efficient identification, reduction, and mitigation of reliability risks. NPCC’s geographic area includes the state of New York, the six New England states, Ontario, Québec, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by approximately 56 million people.

NPCC carries out its mission through: (i) the development of regional reliability standards and compliance assessment and enforcement of continent-wide and Regional Reliability standards, (ii) coordination of system planning, design and operations, and assessment of reliability, and (iii) the establishment of Regionally-specific criteria and monitoring and enforcement of compliance with such criteria.

Additional information regarding NPCC is available at: www.npcc.org.

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^{1 Based on summer nameplate ratings.}

^{2 The summer peak demand forecasts referenced in this overview represent having a 50% chance of being exceeded.}

^{3 The K-index is a measure used to characterize the magnitude of geomagnetic storms, from 1 being calm to 5 or more indicating the severity of a geomagnetic storm.}