Summer 2018 Media Release

Annual Assessment Forecasts

Adequate Electricity Supplies for this Summer

(Assessment covers the City and State of New York, New England, and Eastern Canada)

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) today released the results of its annual summer reliability assessment. The assessment concludes that the NPCC Region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer, based on thousands of simulations covering a wide range of system and weather conditions.

The overall NPCC forecast for electricity peak demand has decreased by about 1,100 MW from last year’s forecast to 104,137 MW. This continues a multi-year trend of declining forecast demand due to energy efficiency and conservation initiatives along with continued increase of “behind-the-meter” photovoltaic resources in New York, New England and Ontario.

Since last summer, NPCC’s installed net capacity has increased by approximately 3,000 MW to 161,307 MW. “About two-thirds of the new capacity consists of natural gas-fired generation primarily with dual-fuel capability located in New York and New England. The remaining capacity consists of Canadian renewable wind and hydro resources,” said Edward Schwerdt, President and CEO of NPCC.

For New York City, New York State, New England and Ontario, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast. The winter peaking Québec and Canadian Maritime Provinces are expected to meet forecasted electricity demand by a wide margin.

“Over the past several years, the combination of reductions in expected peak demand, increased resource capacity and transmission system improvements has made the NPCC system more reliable,” added Schwerdt.

The assessment considered an array of severe system conditions including the impact of: 1) extended maintenance; 2) reductions in demand-response programs; 3) reductions in the ability to import power from neighboring Regions; 4) transmission constraints; and 5) extreme weather characterized by wide-spread and prolonged heat waves with high humidity and temperatures.

Established operating procedures are available, if needed, to maintain reliability for the unlikely simultaneous occurrence of severe system and extreme weather conditions.

A summary of the NPCC 2018 Summer Reliability Assessment is available at: www.npcc.org.