Summer 2018 Reliability Assessment Overview

Adequate Summer Electricity Supplies Projected

The comprehensive reliability assessment conducted by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) projects that the Region (consisting of the six New England states, the State of New York, Ontario, Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer, even during periods of extreme weather.

A wide range of assumptions were analyzed, including extreme weather conditions derived through over 40 years of experience. The assessment considered severe system conditions that included the impact of: 1) extended unit maintenance; 2) reductions in demand-response programs; 3) reductions in the ability to import power from neighboring Regions; 4) transmission constraints; and, 5) extreme weather characterized by wide-spread and prolonged heat waves with high humidity and near-record temperatures.

Established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability and keep electricity supplies and demand in balance if severe system conditions and extreme weather occurs.

Summary of Key Findings

Approximately 3,753 MW of new capacity¹ has been installed since last summer, which includes projects expected to be in service over the course of this summer period. Considering the retirements, derating, and other adjustments, the resultant net change in NPCC generation (from 2017 summer through 2018 summer) is approximately +2,951 MW.

For New York City and throughout New York State, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast this summer. From the summer of 2017 through this summer, several changes to generation in New York have occurred. A major generation addition is the CPV Valley (820MW) generating plant; significant generation retirements/mothballing actions include the Selkirk I & II (446 MW mothball) and Ravenswood GTs (325 MW). With other smaller additions and adjustments, the net change for New York is +744 MW.

New England is expected to have a sufficient supply of electricity this summer. From the summer of 2017 through this summer, 1,631 MW of new generating capacity is being added to the New England system, including Salem 5 & 6 (674 MW), Towantic (725 MW) and Wallingford 6 & 7 (90 MW). No retirements are anticipated and with other additions and adjustments, the net change for New England is +1,048 MW.

Ontario is projected to have a sufficient supply of electricity this summer. From the summer of 2017 through this summer, capacity additions total 245MW, consisting of wind generation (175 MW), solar (54 MW) and hydro (16 MW). Considering 120 MW of gas generation retirements and other adjustments, the resultant net change for Ontario generation (from summer 2017 through this summer) is +255 MW.

Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces have more than an adequate supply of electricity forecast for the summer period. Both of these areas are winter peaking and normal hydro conditions are expected for this summer.

Since the summer of 2017 and through this summer, Hydro-Québec Production has added 800 MW of new capacity, including La Romaine 3 (395 MW hydro), 372 MW of wind capacity, 17 MW of biomass capacity. Considering all changes, the resultant net change for Québec generation (from summer 2017 through this summer) is +887 MW.

Projected NPCC Load

The non-coincident (sum of the individual NPCC area) forecast peak demand for NPCC during the summer of 2018 is 104,404 MW (June – September period). For this assessment period, heating load is not included in the load forecast analysis (i.e. usually early May weeks) in the Maritimes and Québec Areas.

More importantly, the coincident NPCC 2018 summer peak demand forecast of 104,137 MW is expected to occur the week of July 8th. This forecast is 1,140 MW lower than last year’s forecast coincident NPCC peak demand of 105,277 MW, continuing a multi-year trend of declining NPCC peak demand forecasts. Several factors influence the load forecast projection, including the economic activity as well as the on-going effects of behind-the-meter generation, conservation measures, efficiency improvements, and demand response programs.

Nevertheless, ambient weather conditions remain the most important variable in forecasting peak demand during the summer months. Historically, the peak loads and temperatures between New England and New York have a high correlation due to geographic proximity. Depending upon the extent and duration of a summer weather system, there is also some potential for the Ontario summer peak demand to be coincident with New England and New York.

New York

The forecast peak load for summer 2018 by the New York Independent System Operator is 32,904 MW, which is 274 MW lower than the summer 2017 forecast of 33,178 MW. The lower forecast is largely attributed to the projected impact of existing statewide energy efficiency programs and the growing impact of distributed “behind-the-meter” energy resources. These include photovoltaic, combined heat and power, anaerobic digester gas, fuel cells, and energy storage.

New England

The Independent System Operator of New England’s forecast summer 2018 peak demand is 25,729 MW, assuming historically based expected summer peak weather conditions. The 2018 forecast of peak demand is 753 MW lower than the corresponding 2017 forecast of 26,482 MW; the forecast takes into account the demand reductions associated with energy efficiency, load management, passive demand response initiatives, distributed generation and forecasted “behind-the-meter” photovoltaic resources located on the distribution system.

Ontario

The 2018 summer peak Ontario demand forecast by the Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator is 22,002 MW, and includes the reductions due to conservation measures, growth in ‘behind-the-meter’ photovoltaic and wind generation, and pricing factors. The forecast is 612 MW lower that last summer’s forecast ‘weather normal’ peak demand of 22,614 MW. The combined effects of conservation savings and distribution-connected generation are expected to offset economic and population growth.

Québec

The forecast 2018 summer peak load for Québec is 20,534 MW for the week beginning August 12, 2018. The Québec 2018 forecast is 28 MW higher than the summer forecast of 20,506 MW (week of August 13, 2017). It should be noted, however, that Hydro-Québec’s system is winter peaking. Since some heating load remains on the system in early May and picks up again in late September, higher load for Québec may occur around those times.

Maritime Provinces

A 2018 summer peak load of 3,235 MW is forecast for the Maritime Provinces for the week of July 1, 2018. For this assessment period heating load is not included in the load forecast analysis (early weeks in May 2018 have higher forecast loads than the July week but the lower forecast loads would be influenced by heating load). The Maritime Provinces are winter peaking; forecast peaks for the shoulder months are normally much higher than the summer period. The 2018 forecast peak is 15 MW higher than last year’s corresponding forecast summer peak of 3,220 MW (for the week of June 4, 2017).

Transmission and Resource Adequacy Summary

NPCC 2018 Summary

During the NPCC forecast coincident peak load week (beginning July 8, 2018), the overall spare operable capacity (capacity over and above reserve requirements) for NPCC is estimated to be 17,275MW. A portion of this spare operable capacity is in the Québec and Maritime Provinces. The transfer capability between the Québec and the Maritimes Provinces to the remainder of NPCC will not permit the usage of all this forecast spare operable capacity. As a result, the spare operable capacity margin (spare operable capacity less transfer capability limitations) is 12,056 MW.

The week beginning June 24, 2018 represents the week with the lowest forecast spare operable capacity margin (10,310 MW) estimated to be available. This is not the same week as the forecasted NPCC coincident peak demand (July 8, 2018).

The sizeable forecast NPCC spare operable capacity margins will help to counteract adverse reliability impacts that project delays could have on overall NPCC reliability this summer.

New York

The New York Independent System Operator (ISO) forecasts installed capacity of 39,325 MW for the peak week demand forecast of 32,904 MW. Accounting for purchases, sales, required operating reserve, planned and unplanned outages results in a spare operable capacity margin of +1,867 MW for the peak week.

Supply-Side Resources

From the summer of 2017 through this summer, several changes to generation in New York have occurred or are yet anticipated. The retirement of Ravenswood GTs, Selkirk I and II, and Binghamton GTs totaling 819 MW. Generation additions include CPV Valley (820 MW), Bayonne Energy Center II (132 MW), Bethlehem Energy Center uprate (72 MW) and Arthur Kill Cogen (11 MW). Considering all changes and other capacity adjustments (483 MW rescinded retirements and +20 MW adjustments), the resultant net change for New York generation (from summer 2017 through this summer) is +744 MW.

New York currently has 1,739 MW of installed nameplate wind capacity, of which 320 MW is assumed available during the summer peak demand period.

Demand Response Resources

For this summer, the New York ISO has several demand response programs representing a total of 1,237 MW supporting system reliability.

Transmission

New York does not anticipate any transmission related reliability issues for this summer; facilities that returned to service in the fourth quarter of 2017 include the Ramapo 345 kV Phase Angle Regulator and the Hudson Transmission Partners 660 MW HVDC transmission link between New York City and the PJM Interconnection.

Additions in the fourth quarter of 2017 include the Moses 115 kV capacitor bank, facilities associated with the Dolson Avenue 345 kV substation ring bus reconfiguration (between Coopers Corners and Rock Tavern) and the New York to Vermont PV-20 Submarine Cable Replacement Project.

In the first quarter of 2018, the Pannell Road substation reconfiguration/transformer replacement and the Eastover Road addition of a second 230/115 kV transformer were completed.

New England

The Independent System Operator (ISO) of New England forecasts installed capacity of 30,460MW for the peak week demand forecast of 25,729MW. Accounting for purchases, sales, required operating reserve, planned and unplanned outages results in a spare operable capacity margin of +2,188 MW for the peak week.

Supply-Side Resources

From the summer of 2017 through this summer, 1,631MW of new generating capacity has been added to the New England system. No generation retirements are planned for this timeframe. Generation additions that have occurred or are yet anticipated include Salem 5 & 6 (674 MW), Towantic (725 MW), Wallingford 6 & 7 (90 MW) and various wind and solar projects (totaling 142 MW). Considering all changes and other capacity adjustments (-583 MW adjustment), the resultant net change for New England generation resources (from summer 2017 through this summer) is +1,048 MW.

New England’s total wind capacity for this summer is 1,372 MW; 176 MW is counted toward installed capacity.

Demand Response Resources

For this summer, New England has 408 MW of active demand resources that can participate in their Forward Capacity Market.

Transmission

The New England transmission system is anticipated to be sufficient for this summer. Various significant transmission system upgrades have been made in New England in recent years and ISO New England continually monitors and coordinates transmission facility outages in order to maintain reliability and reduce economic impact that may be associated with these transmission system outages and improvements.

Since the 2017 summer assessment period, the Scobie-Tewksbury 345 kV circuit (from southern New Hampshire to northeastern Massachusetts) was placed in-service; improving the overall transfer capability of the North/South interface and increasing the Boston Import interface by approximately 300 MW.

Ontario

The Independent Electricity System Operator of Ontario is anticipating spare operable capacity margin of 1,865 MW during the peak week (week beginning July 8, 2018).

Supply-Side Resources

From the summer of 2017 through this summer, capacity additions total 245 MW, consisting of wind generation (175 MW), solar (54 MW) and hydro capacity (16 MW). There were 120 MW of capacity retirements. Considering these changes, plus seasonal adjustments (+130 MW), the resultant net change for Ontario generation (from summer 2017 through this summer) is +255 MW.

Ontario’s total wind capacity for this summer is 4,313 MW, with 545 MW of that amount counted toward installed capacity.

There was 2,017 MW of installed “behind-the-meter” photovoltaic resources in the summer of 2017 which increased to 2,228 MW by the summer of 2018.

Demand Response Resources

For this summer, Ontario has 630 MW of active demand resources expected to be available on peak.

Transmission

For this summer, Ontario’s transmission system is expected to be adequate with planned transmission system enhancements and scheduled transmissions outages. Ontario has an expected coincident import capability of approximately 5,200 MW.

Québec

The Province of Québec is winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements this summer. Québec is projecting weekly spare operable capacity margins in the range of approximately 6,000 MW to 11,200 MW for this summer.

Supply-Side Resources

Since the summer of 2017 and through this summer, Hydro-Québec Production has added 411 MW of hydro capacity (La Romaine 3 (395 MW) and Onzieme Chute (16 MW), 372 MW of wind capacity and 17 MW of biomass capacity. Considering all changes, the resultant net change for Québec generation (from summer 2017 through this summer) is +887 MW.

For the purposes of this assessment, Québec assumed that its entire wind generation of 3,880 MW is 100% derated.

Demand Response Resources

The demand response programs in Québec are available only during the winter period; they are neither required nor available for the summer.

Transmission

Most transmission line, transformer and generating unit maintenance is done during the summer period. The maintenance outages are being planned so that all exports can be maintained. Maintenance is coordinated with neighboring Reliability Coordinators so as to leave maximum capability to the NPCC summer peaking Areas.

Maritimes

The Maritime Provinces are also winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements. The Maritimes forecast spare operable capacity margins ranging from approximately 1,300 MW to about 2,300 MW over this summer.

Supply-Side Resources

Since the summer of 2017 and through this summer, the Maritimes has added 16 MW new capacity resources. Considering a very small capacity adjustment (1 MW), the net change to Maritimes generation (from summer 2017 through this summer) is +17 MW.

The Maritimes currently have approximately 1,137 MW of nameplate installed wind generation. After applying derates, the wind capacity for the summer period is assumed to be 186 MW.

Demand Response Resources

Interruptible and dispatchable loads are forecast on a weekly basis and range between 284 MW and 367 MW and are available for use if or when corrective action is required.

Transmission

The Maritimes transmission system is projected to be adequate to supply the demand requirements for this summer.

A High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) undersea cable link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia was installed in late 2017. Currently this link is being used as an additional tie line providing minimal energy flow between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Maintenance work on the second tie line from New Brunswick to New England was completed in April 2018, restoring the line for the summer period.

Estimated Need for Operating Procedures

A wide range of assumptions were analyzed, including extreme weather conditions derived through over 40 years of experience, unexpected plant outages, transmission constraints between and within regions, implementation of operating procedures and estimated contributions of demand response programs.

In the probabilistic assessment, chronological system histories were developed by combining randomly generated operating histories of the generating units with the inter-area transfer limits and the hourly loads. For example, random events, such as equipment failures, peak load forecast uncertainty, as well as the deterministic rules and policies that govern system operation were modeled.

There are no significant likelihoods of using NPCC Area Operating Procedures designed to mitigate resource shortages during the 2018 summer period for the Base Case conditions assuming the expected peak load forecast.

The overall NPCC forecast for electricity peak demand has decreased compared to last summer’s forecast; reflecting the load growth associated with the economic outlook, ongoing conservation measures, improvements in energy efficiency, demand response programs and “behind-the meter” photovoltaic facilities.

Additional resources and improved transmission capacity resulting from transmission projects available this summer are additional factors that act to minimize the expected need for the use of these operating procedures this summer.

Established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability and keep electricity supplies and demand in balance if system conditions (such as reductions in anticipated transfers, maintenance extending into the summer period and/or additional constraints) occur with higher than expected electricity demands resulting from a wide spread, prolonged heat wave with high humidity.

Operational Readiness

The Resource and Transmission Reliability Adequacy Assessments are key elements in determining NPCC’s ability to meet the forecast demands of the summer period. To be prepared to deal with the constantly changing operating conditions on the power system, as well as contingencies, NPCC routinely conducts daily and week-ahead planning calls between system operators and neighboring regions to coordinate short-term system operations.

NPCC continues to refine and expand its situational awareness capability to include wide-area visual displays of NPCC and its adjacent Regional Entities to further enable NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions.

Geomagnetic Storms

Past experiences have shown the serious effect that geomagnetic disturbances can have on the NPCC bulk power system. These effects can include transformer failures and unintentional tripping of transmission lines (outages) due to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs).

Since 1989, NPCC has operating procedures in-place to mitigate the effects of GICs resulting from geomagnetic storms. NPCC system operators receive, on a continual twenty-four hour by seven-day basis, the status of solar activity and geomagnetic storm alerts.

After reviewing the available data, the system operator evaluates the situation and enacts appropriate measures designed to protect system elements such as transformers, transmission lines, generators, and other critical facilities.

For the 2018 summer assessment period, the primary driver of geomagnetic activity will be coronal holes, from which higher solar wind streams will emanate. These will be fairly stable features, and therefore will be predictable. However, the occurrence of higher velocity solar wind streams will slowly decrease as the solar minimum approaches, thereby reducing the probability of significant GIC activity. It is expected that in about two years the solar minimum will occur and the next solar cycle will begin.

During the upcoming summer, geomagnetic activity is expected to be variable. Coronal hole induced enhancements of geomagnetic activity are likely throughout each month of the summer. The strongest period of monthly activity should tend to occur closer to the middle of the month until about June. Thereafter, the most enhanced period should migrate closer to the beginning of each month or the very end of each month by this fall.

K-indices above 6 are unlikely to be very common this summer during coronal hole-based disturbances. However, K-indices of 4 to 5 will still be likely. This means that GIC’s are less likely to be observed, or if they are observed, should not be very strong. The Areas affected the most will most dominantly be toward the northern to central areas of the NPCC region (such as northern to central Quebec and northern to central Ontario). However, the strength of the induced current activity even at these spots is unlikely to be very strong, barring unforeseen coronal mass ejections. Since these events cannot be reliably predicted prior to about three to four days before their occurrence, only short-term predictions will be of more significant value in these situations.

In summary, GIC activity should continue to be quiet during this summer, provided the dominant driver of space weather continues to be related to coronal holes. This trend is expected to continue and become increasingly quiet as time passes over the coming two years. Coronal holes will continue to slowly consolidate over the solar poles (increasingly out of reach of the Earth), with a gradual trend for fewer coronal hole extensions to solar latitudes capable of influencing the Earth.

Natural Gas Supply

NPCC continues to monitor factors impacting natural gas fuel deliverability since it is the predominant fuel source in New England. For the 2018 summer capacity period, ISO New England expects limited amounts of natural gas pipeline maintenance and construction to occur for select areas and does not forecast major gas deliverability issues.

ISO New England has several procedures that can also be invoked to mitigate regional fuel supply emergencies impacting the power generation sector that maintains system reliability.

ISO New England and the interstate natural gas pipeline operators continue to improve the forecast of their combined systems, discuss specific system conditions, and take actions, under their existing authorities, to avoid reliability problems. Sharing information allows ISO-NE to better anticipate and address potential reliability problems in the event that there is insufficient fuel for all gas-fired generators to meet their schedules. Along with near-term weather data, load forecasts and planned outage conditions, this information is also used to develop short-term and long-term operating plans.

NPCC

NPCC is one of eight Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada and portions of Mexico. The NPCC geographic region includes the State of New York and the six New England states as well as the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Québec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by more than 56 million people. In total, from a net energy for load perspective, NPCC is approximately 45% U.S. and 55% Canadian. With regard to Canada, approximately 70% of Canadian net energy for load is within the NPCC Region.

NPCC coordinates international electric power grid reliability for Northeastern North America. NPCC annually performs comprehensive seasonal assessments of electricity supply and demand reliability for eastern Canada, New England and the City and State of New York. These assessments require months of detailed preparation and are performed with the participation of regional electricity power grid operators and planners.

Additional information regarding NPCC is available at: www.npcc.org.

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¹ Based on summer nameplate ratings.

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