Summer 2020 Reliability Assessment Overview

This comprehensive reliability assessment conducted by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) projects that the Region (consisting of the six New England states, the State of New York, Ontario, Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer, even during periods of extreme weather.

The assessment was based on the supply, demand, resource and transmission projects reported as of May 1st and brackets plausible supply, demand and operational COVID-19 impacts.

A wide range of assumptions were analyzed, including extreme weather conditions derived through over 40 years of experience, unexpected generating plant outages, transmission constraints between and within Regions, implementation of operating procedures and estimated impact of demand response programs.

The assessment considered severe system conditions that included the impact of: 1) extended unit maintenance; 2) reductions in demand-response programs; 3) reductions in the ability to import power from neighboring Regions; 4) transmission constraints; and, 5) extreme weather characterized by widespread and prolonged heat waves with high humidity and near-record temperatures.

Forecasts indicate adequate transmission capability and sufficient capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves. Established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability and keep electricity supplies and demand in balance if severe system conditions and extreme weather occurs.

COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts and Responses

The international outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, during the development of this assessment. NPCC and its stakeholders have implemented a number of procedures and plans to address the associated pandemic impacts. NPCC activated its pandemic response plan and continues to hold regular Emergency Preparedness Conference Calls with regional Reliability Coordinator’s regarding the latest entity efforts. These calls are expected to continue throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, as necessary. Lessons learned through past grid security exercises have guided the electricity industry in preparing the current pandemic response.

NPCC continues to assess the evolving situation to understand the short and long-term impacts to continue to provide a highly reliable and secure Northeastern North American Bulk Power System (BPS). These include understanding resultant uncertainty in demand projections and daily energy use. In addition, BPS element maintenance schedules are being evaluated to maintain safe and reliable operations. The full scope of the pandemic impacts is variable and dependent upon ongoing governmental and regulatory responses and their associated effects. At this time, NPCC and its Reliability Coordinators are assessing any reliability concerns that may arise for the upcoming summer; specific impacts and responses are detailed below.

New York

Due to the outbreak of the novel COVID-19 virus in New York State, the New York Independent System Operator (New York ISO) has taken numerous precautions so that power grid operations and wholesale electricity markets remain fully operational. The New York ISO is taking the necessary precautions to reduce possible risks from COVID-19 for the health and safety of their employees and the reliability of New York’s electric system.

As of April 16, 2020, demand is down across the New York Control Area, with certain zones experiencing more dramatic drops in load than others. Demand reductions are largest in the morning, particularly in New York City. New York City hourly demand for the period of April 6th – April 10th ranged from roughly 2% to 18% below typical levels. For weekdays, reductions in electric consumption in New York City averaged 18% below expected during the 8:00 a.m. hour.

New York statewide reductions in electric consumption compared to typical demand levels ranged from roughly 1% during the 12:00 a.m. hour to just under 12% during the 7:00 a.m. hour. The reduction in electric demand from commercial customers is driving the reduction. Residential energy use has increased, especially during the midday period. The New York ISO continues to monitor and assess changes in electricity demand level and consumption patterns to further refine daily and longer-term demand forecasts. This ongoing assessment includes evaluating demand patterns, updating economic forecasts, and engaging with local utilities.

The New York ISO is coordinating generator maintenance outages with the generator asset owners and transmission maintenance outages with the transmission owners. Some non-essential maintenance work is being re-scheduled to the fall while critical maintenance work to ensure operational capability for peak conditions will continue this spring.

New England

With residents and businesses across New England changing their behavior in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-New England) is seeing a decline in system demand of approximately 3% to 5%, compared to what would normally be expected under similar weather conditions in the region. These percentages may change over time.

In addition to overall declines in consumer demand, these societal changes are also affecting demand patterns across the region. The ISO-New England forecasters are seeing load patterns that resemble those of snow days, when schools are closed and many are home during the day. These patterns include a slower than normal ramp-up of usage in the morning, and increased energy use in the afternoon. Though the pandemic is affecting energy usage, weather conditions remain the primary drivers of system demand. ISO-New England will continuously monitor these ever-changing trends in load patterns, and make the appropriate adjustments to calculate an accurate load forecast. The region’s power system continues to remain reliable.

Due to the current pandemic, ISO-New England is conducting weekly Electric/Gas Operations Committee meetings to determine pandemic impacts to pipelines and has instituted the use of a Generator Outage Risk Assessment Questionnaire. The questionnaire is disseminated to all generators with upcoming outages in order to ascertain each generator’s current plans regarding their outage and any foreseeable risks to their outage. This includes the ability for the generator to detail their back-up plans to return the unit to service if requested, if they are able to shorten their outage should they have non-essential work they can postpone, and if there is a risk that their outage would be extended.

Ontario

While it’s too soon to assess the full scope and scale of the virus’ impacts, in many jurisdictions, including Ontario, it has already triggered significant reaction that will affect electricity demand.

Demand patterns were already changing in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as more Ontarians work from home and businesses alter their operations. Overall demand is beginning to trend low, and it will likely continue to decrease as more businesses temporarily close their operations. Daily conversations are taking place with generators, transmitters, and distributors to share information and ensure the system is collectively prepared to adapt.

The outbreak of COVID-19 may impact planned outages (both generation and transmission) in the coming months. The Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (Ontario IESO) continues to monitor the situation, and will provide updated assessments when more information becomes available.

Québec

In general, the load forecasting models have over-estimated the morning and afternoon peaks since the beginning of the week of March 23rd. The midday troughs are not as easily predictable, encountering both under and over estimations. Nightly troughs followed the same pattern throughout the week as they were always over estimated.

The provincial government announced a lockdown of non-essential commercial and industrial businesses throughout the province on March 30th. Main industrial consumers have stayed open for business and continue their production in a normal pattern. No changes have been detected in their consumption profile. The situation has been monitored very closely with the help of Hydro-Québec commercial representatives.

More simulations are being conducted than usual, to find the right pattern in a constantly evolving situation. The working organization of the load forecasting team has been modified. Since March 23rd, there has been a daily setup and gathering of six load forecasting team members and the team manager in order to analyze and decide on the next day hourly forecasting positions.

Maritimes

The Maritimes Area is currently seeing slight shifts in the timing and ramping of peak load. Weather is still the main driver of load profiles. The effects of COVID-19 on load patterns, energy usage, and peak demands will continue to be evaluated as the situation unfolds. The System Operators have created and enacted system operator contingency plans to ensure the health and safety of personnel and continued reliable operation of the power grid. The Maritimes power companies are evaluating contingency plans for T&D and Generation planned work, planned maintenance, and forced outages to proceed conservatively while mitigating short term and longer-term reliability risks. Contingency plans are re-evaluated constantly as the COVID-19 pandemic evolves.

Entities continue to monitor the ongoing spread of COVID-19 and remain focused on the health and safety of employees, consultants, contractors, partners, and their families. Response teams are monitoring the situation, coordinating with authorities, and keeping employees informed via regular business updates.

Transmission and Resource Adequacy Summary

NPCC

The assessment projects that the Region (consisting of the six New England states, the State of New York, Ontario, Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer, even during periods of extreme weather. This assessment for the NPCC Areas is based on the supply, demand, resource and transmission projects reported as of May 1st.

Approximately 2,800 MW of new capacity¹ has been installed in NPCC since last summer, including projects expected to be in service over the course of this summer period. Taking into account retirements and other adjustments, NPCC’s installed capacity has decreased slightly by 700 MW from last summer.

The coincident NPCC 2020 summer peak demand is expected to be no higher than 104,156 MW. This forecast is 608 MW higher than last year’s forecast coincident NPCC peak demand, primarily due to the return of a large industrial customer in the Province of Québec. After accounting for transmission constraints, the spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) for NPCC over during the summer is estimated to range from 12,700 MW to nearly 21,000 MW.

The sizeable estimate of NPCC spare operable capacity will help to counteract any adverse reliability impacts from unavailability/inoperability of key facilities, such as resulting from work force disruptions, equipment and fuel supply interruptions, and deferred generation maintenance.

Nevertheless, ambient weather conditions remain the most important variable in forecasting peak demand during the summer months. Historically, the peak loads and temperatures between New England and New York have a high correlation due to the relative locations of their respective load centers. Depending upon the extent and duration of a summer weather system, there is some potential for the Ontario summer peak demand to be coincident with New England and New York.

New York

Throughout New York State, an adequate supply of electricity is forecast this summer. The New York Independent System Operator (New York ISO) forecasts installed capacity of 38,475 MW for the peak week demand forecast of 32,296 MW. Accounting for purchases, sales, required operating reserve, planned and unplanned outages results in a spare operable capacity of 1,711 MW during the peak week.

The New York ISO forecast peak load for summer 2020 is 32,296 MW, which is 86 MW lower than the summer 2019 forecast.

Cayuga Unit 1 and the Somerset coal plants have retired; Indian Point Unit 2 retired on April 30th. Resource additions include the Cricket Valley natural gas-fired generator and Eight Point Wind. Considering all changes and other capacity adjustments, the resultant net change for New York generation (from summer 2019 through this upcoming summer) is -978 MW.

The New York ISO does not anticipate any transmission related reliability issues for this summer.

New England

The Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-New England) forecasts installed capacity of 31,115 MW for the peak week demand forecast of 25,158 MW. Accounting for purchases, sales, required operating reserve, planned and unplanned outages results in a spare operable capacity of 3,197 MW for the peak week.

The ISO-New England forecast summer 2020 peak demand is 25,158 MW, assuming historically based expected summer peak weather conditions. The 2020 forecast of peak demand is 165 MW lower than the corresponding 2019 forecast.

By this summer, ISO-New England anticipates a variety of smaller generation resources to be in-service, totaling approximately 128 MW of nameplate capacity.

With natural gas as the predominant fuel source for power generation in New England, ISO-New England monitors the factors affecting the natural gas fuel deliverability for the area. For the 2020 summer period, ISO-New England expects limited amounts of natural gas pipeline maintenance and construction to occur for select areas and does not forecast major deliverability issues that would affect the installed capacity.

The existing New England transmission system is projected to be sufficient for the 2020 summer period.

Ontario

The Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (Ontario IESO) is anticipating a spare operable capacity of 1,558 MW during the peak week.

The Ontario IESO 2020 summer peak demand forecast for ‘weather normal’ conditions is 22,194 MW. The forecast is 89 MW higher that last summer’s forecast ‘weather normal’ peak demand.

From the summer of 2019 through this summer, capacity additions total 1,499 MW, consisting of Napanee natural gas-fired generator, wind and solar resources. Considering other adjustments, the resultant net change for Ontario’s generation (from summer 2019 through this summer) is 1,461 MW.

For this summer, Ontario’s transmission system is expected to be adequate with planned transmission system enhancements and scheduled transmissions outages.

Québec

The Province of Québec is winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements this summer. Québec is projecting weekly operable capacity margins in the range of approximately 5,300 MW to 8,700 MW for this summer.

The forecast 2020 summer peak load for Québec is 21,635 MW. The 2020 forecast is 630 MW higher than the last summer forecast of 21,005MW, primarily due to the return of a large industrial customer. The Hydro-Québec system is winter peaking.

Québec has added small amounts of wind and biomass resources, along with a number of small hydro retirements. Considering other adjustments, the resultant net change for Québec generation (from summer 2019 through this summer) is -35 MW.

Most transmission line, transformer and generating unit maintenance is done during the summer period. Maintenance outages are coordinated with neighboring Area Reliability Coordinators to provide for maximum capability to summer peaking areas.

Maritime Provinces

The Maritime Provinces are also winter peaking. Adequate resources are forecast to be available to serve summer peak demand and meet operating reserve requirements. The Maritimes spare operable capacity ranges from approximately 1,100 MW to about 1,900 MW over this summer.

A 2020 summer peak load of 3,370 MW is forecast for the Maritime Provinces. The Maritime Provinces are winter peaking; forecast peaks for the shoulder months are normally much higher than the summer period. The 2020 forecast peak is 115 MW higher than last year’s corresponding forecast summer peak of 3,255 MW.

Since the summer of 2019 and through this summer, the Maritimes added small wind units; considering retirements, the resultant net change for Maritimes generation is -248 MW.

The Maritimes transmission system is projected to be adequate to supply the demand requirements for this summer.

Estimated Need for Operating Procedures

A wide range of assumptions were analyzed, including extreme weather conditions derived through over 40 years of experience, unexpected plant outages, transmission constraints between and within Regions, implementation of operating procedures and estimated impact of demand response programs.

Established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability and keep electricity supplies and demand in balance if system conditions (such as reductions in anticipated transfers, maintenance extending into the summer period and/or additional constraints) occur with higher than expected electricity demands resulting from a wide spread, prolonged heat wave with high humidity.

Operational Readiness

The Resource and Transmission Reliability Adequacy Assessments are key elements in determining NPCC’s ability to meet the forecast demands of the summer period. To be prepared to deal with the constantly changing operating conditions on the power system, as well as contingencies, NPCC routinely conducts daily and week-ahead planning calls between system operators and neighboring regions to coordinate short-term system operations.

NPCC continues to refine and expand its situational awareness capability to further enable NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions.

Geomagnetic Storms

Geomagnetic activity over the summer and fall months of 2020 will continue to be low, with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions heavily dominating the period (K-indices of zero to 3). Coronal hole activity, which has been the dominant form of enhanced solar wind flows over the last year, has also stabilized over the polar regions of the Sun as the solar minimum approaches. This will further aid in maintaining a relatively stable space environment near the Earth for the upcoming period.

Solar activity is now at the minimum with the sunspot minimum for this solar cycle expected to be identified numerically within the next six months or so. As a result, the risk of enhanced geomagnetic activity resulting from solar coronal mass ejections is also expected to remain low. The next solar cycle is predicted to be around the same size as the last solar cycle, and should reach a peak near 2025.

NPCC Region

NPCC is one of six Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada and portions of Mexico that, in concert with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, seek to assure a highly reliable, resilient, and secure North American bulk power system through the effective and efficient identification, reduction, and mitigation of reliability risks. NPCC’s geographic area includes the state of New York, the six New England states, Ontario, Québec, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by approximately 56 million people.

NPCC is responsible for promoting and enhancing the reliability of the international, interconnected bulk power system in Northeastern North America. NPCC carries out its mission through: (i) the development of regional reliability standards and compliance assessment and enforcement of continent-wide and regional reliability standards, coordination of system planning, design and operations, and assessment of reliability, and (ii) the establishment of Regionally-specific criteria and monitoring and enforcement of compliance with such criteria.

Additional information regarding NPCC is available at: www.npcc.org.

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¹ Based on summer nameplate ratings.